by Gurumoorthy M.
Though I have been hearing and reading about ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’ and have been witnessing the change in the weather over the past decade or so, it never got in to the serious thoughts. In the recent times, couple of events (can i say events?) happened:
1. My friend Arvind and I attended a course on ‘sustainable living’. This was my first organised learning attempt towards climate change and related stuff. Combined study and hearing from 20,000 learners from 20+ countries in the discussions forum sharpened our understanding. We also ended up viewing/reading tons of reference materials.
2. Read Vairamuthu’s ‘Moonram Ualagappoor’ in Tamil which seriously dealt with climate change and its impact on agriculture within a strong storyline.
3. Recently countries of the world met in Doha, Qatar under the auspices of the United Nations, to continue their nearly 20 year conversation about what they could or should do concerning climate change. Twenty years of talk and no action. Why? Because there’s way too much money to be made doing nothing.
Today, I am fairly convinced that:
1. Climate change is happening and real
2. Current climate change is due to human activities
3. There is direct impact on agriculture which is already in cross roads
4. Climate change is just not environmental issue, it is more of economic issue and hence needs political intervention.
With this preample, I would like to assemble my learnings and thinking here. Please note that this is a search and is towards ‘socially equitable, environmentally viable and economically sustainable planet’
What is Climate?
Weather is the temperature, precipitation (rain, hail, sleet and snow) and wind, which change hour by hour and day by day. Climate is the average weather we expect over a long period of time. Since the last ice age ended 11,000 years ago, the Earth has moved into a relatively stable interglacial climate. Global temperatures have been largely stable, averaging about 14 C. This stability has allowed complex ecosystems to thrive, supporting a wide range of life on Earth.
What is Climate Change?
Climate change refers to a change in the average state of the climate. The Earth’s climate has changed many times in response to natural causes. In the last century, however, our climate has started to change rapidly.
How does Climate change?
Our climate is dominated by two major factors, the sun and the atmosphere. Sunlight provides the energy which heats the Earth, but that heat doesn’t naturally stay here. Without an atmosphere, it would be given off as infrared radiation by the Earth and it would virtually all go back out to space – creating a very cold planet (there is no atmosphere in moon and is the reason for moon being cold)
Our atmosphere stops that from happening. Certain gases in the atmosphere allow sunlight to pass through, but then stop the heat from escaping back out into space – much like glass in a greenhouse. That’s why this is called the greenhouse effect, and why the gases responsible (water vapour, CO2, methane and others) are called greenhouse gases.
Research has shown that, without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would be about 30C cooler – making it uninhabitable to most forms of life. Because they’re so effective in keeping the planet warm, we know that any changes in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will affect the Earth’s temperature. The majority of greenhouse gases come from burning fossil fuels to produce energy, although deforestation, industrial processes, and some agricultural practices also emit gases into the atmosphere.
Is there any evidence?
The evidence is clear. Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by changes in weather and climate. Many places have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more frequent and severe heat waves. The planet’s oceans and glaciers have also experienced some big changes – oceans are warming and becoming more acidic, ice caps are melting, and sea levels are rising. As these and other changes become more pronounced in the coming decades, they will likely present challenges to our society and our environment.
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ points to few facts which are not disputable.
The CO2 content in the atmosphere has increased from 275 ppmv in 1750 to 397 ppmv in 2012 The 100-year drought occurs every 10thyear, the 200-year flood will come every 10thyear. The hurricane that should have been category 2 will be category 5. Rather than 2 strong tornadoes per year you get 50. Instead of the usual half a meter of snow in February you get two metres. The 100-year wave come every second year or annually. The IPCC is the most reliable report on climate change
in existence.
Is it going to affect us?
Our lives are connected to the climate. Human societies have adapted to the relatively stable climate we have enjoyed since the last ice age. A warming climate will bring changes that can affect our water supplies, agriculture, power and transportation systems, the natural environment, and our own health
and safety.
Some changes to the climate are unavoidable. Carbon dioxide can stay in the atmosphere for nearly a century, so Earth will continue to warm in the coming decades. The warmer it gets, the greater the risk for more severe changes to the climate and Earth’s system. Although it’s difficult to predict the exact impacts of climate change, what’s clear is that the climate we are accustomed to is no longer a reliable guide for what to expect in the future. Many of the failed harvests of the past decade were a consequence of weather disasters, like floods in the United States, drought in Australia and blistering heat waves in Europe and Russia. Scientists believe some, though not all, of those events were caused or worsened by human-induced global warming. Several recent scientific reports on climate change have warned we are headed for disaster, giving frightening evidence of just how bad things could get. It is just as frightening how little world governments intend to do about it.
What is the solution?
We can reduce the risks we will face from climate change. By making choices that reduce greenhouse gas pollution, and preparing for the changes that are already underway, we can reduce risks from climate change. From funding affordable public transport or making goods that last longer, there are ways of living
better without wrecking the future.We could use less energy without discomfort with the right kind of planning. At the most fundamental level, therefore, the climate solution requires turning away from fossil fuel dependence. Societies locked in to fossil fuels need to adopt structurally different, non-fossil energy,
transport, agricultural and consumption regimes within a few decades to minimise future dangers and costs. Infrastructure, trade, even community structure, will have to be reorganised. State support will have to be shifted from fossil-fuelled development toward popular movements that are already constructing or defending low-carbon means of livelihood and social life. Solutions to the climate crisis thus depend first and foremost on political organising and on social and economic changes.
Our decisions today will shape the world our children and grandchildren will live in.
Why is it political?
The world’s economy revolves around carbon-spewing technologies. And until those controlling the resources figure out how to make money in changing, there will be no serious change.
CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children.
Take the example given by US ecologist Lester Brown in a speech in 2008. He said burning coal makes up 40% of world carbon emissions from energy. To replace that coal with wind power, Brown said we would need to build about 1.5 million wind turbines worldwide and we should aim to do it in 10 years. That might seem like too huge a task. 1.5 million wind turbines would be close to an 800% rise on todays level. But Brown pointed out that about 65 million cars had been made in the past year. If just one industry can produce that many cars in a single year, there is no question we could build 1.5 million wind turbines in 10 years, if society’s resources were mobilised to that end.
Further Brown comes with a budget (Plan B 4.0: Mobilising the Planet to Save Civilisation) which added up the costs of restoring the Earths ecosystems which includes covering social goals, such as universal education and health care, and natural restoration projects, such as tree planting, soil renewal and water security.This budget is estimated as $187 billion a year equal to just one eighth of global military spending.
Why should the Left play a role?
The People’s Agreement adopted by the 2010 World People’s Conference on Climate Change, held in Cochabamba, Bolivia, made the point this way “Humanity confronts a great dilemma to continue on the path of capitalism, depredation, and death, or to choose the path of harmony with nature and respect for life.It is imperative that we forge a new system that restores harmony with nature and among human beings. And for there to be balance with nature, there must first be equity among human
beings” Climate change is no accident. It’s a direct result of the economic and social system that governs theplanet – capitalism. Capitalism can only survive by continued accumulation, extracting resources as quickly as possible and turning them into commodities that can be bought and sold.
Climate change will shape world history as much as colonialism and imperialism did and left needs to take this seriously and take a lead in building the mass movements that are needed to confront this crisis. This crisis is at an extreme stage, with greater than predicted average global temperature rises imminent.
So far, the Left, particularly in India has not played an active role in the environment movement. Mostly it is in the hands of NGOs and few concerned individuals.
The conservative IPCC estimates agri production falling up to 40% in India. Hunger and malnutrition deaths may even overtake suicides. Our cities will turn into slums from migrants.
The economy the govt wants to protect will collapse. We will have law and order issues, class riots.
Bertolt Brecht, when driven out of Germany by the nazis, wrote an allegory about the madness engulfing Europe:
“They were sawing the branches on which they were sitting, and they shouted to each other
how one could saw faster. And when with a crash they fell down those watching them shook
their heads – and kept on sawing.”
Should we wait?
