RENEWED INTEREST IN NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
In a resolution on 27 October, 2016, United Nations General Assembly decided ‘to convene in 2017 a UN Conference to negotiate a legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons, leading towards their total elimination.’123 nations voted in favour, 38 against and 16 decided to abstain. Mexico, Austria, Brazil, Argentina, Ireland, Nigeria, South Africa, Indonesia, Philippines, Jamaica, New Zealand were among the leading countries which took the initiative to revive an effort to fulfill the initial commitment of United Nations when it came into existence and received overwhelming support. The preamble of the UN Charter begins with ‘to save succeeding generations from scourge of war…’ As expected most nuclear weapons possessing countries – United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, Israel – voted against the resolution while China, India and Pakistan abstained. North Korea, which also possesses the weapons, sprung a welcome surprise by voting in favour.
This resolution is very timely because of two reasons. First, real possibility of a direct confrontation between two nuclear weapons possessing nations in a war for the first time in the history between India and Pakistan is haunting us, in which a side on the verge of losing may desperately use the nuclear weapons which will provoke the other to use it as well, resulting in wide scale mass destruction on both sides. Second, Donald Trump has indulged in loose talk of employing nuclear weapons which has scared people. The looming threat has stirred people into action. If we need a guarantee against the use of nuclear weapons then a complete ban on them and possible elimination is required.
The only time these weapons have been used was in 1945 by US over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 1.5 lakhs people died immediately in Hiroshima and slightly less in Nagasaki. Many more died due to long term effects, especially due to radiation related causes. The common diseases which afflicted people were leukemia, thyroid cancer, breast cancer and lung cancer. In addition radiation caused birth defects resulting in physically or mentally challenged children being born.
M.V. Ramana, who works with the Nuclear Futures Laboratory and Programme on Science and Global Security at Princeton University, has estimated the number of causalities, in an imagined attack on Mumbai, in his book ‘Bombing Bombay – Effects of Nuclear Weapons and a Case Study of a Hypothetical Explosion’ as between 1.6 lakhs and 8.66 lakhs for a bomb of the size and type that was dropped on Hiroshima. However, a typical more modern hydrogen bomb, may kill between 7.36 lakhs to 86.6 lakhs people immediately. Subsequent deaths and disease will follow due to radiation.
India and Pakistan have enough bombs in their arsenal that virtually all cities in Pakistan and north India could become a victim of such large scale destruction. The area would become inhabitable for centuries to come because of the effects of radiation. Agriculture, a basic activity for survival would not be possible on contaminated soil and water will be too poisonous to drink.
The only way to ensure that such a scenario doesn’t become a reality is to eliminate all nuclear weapons from South Asia and the whole world. It is encouraging to note that five areas in the world comprising of more than hundred countries have committed themselves to not manufacture a nuclear weapon or allow another county to install one on their soil. They are Latin America and the Caribbean, South Pacific, Southeast Asia, Africa and Central Asia. In addition Mongolia is a self-declared nuclear weapon free country.
It is sad that while Barack Obama has publicly expressed his commitment to support the cause of a nuclear weapons free world, the US government was involved in fierce mobilisation to oppose the UN resolution. The US thinks that banning the nuclear weapons will undermine its security even though Obama said in Hiroshima, the first incumbent US President to make a visit here, ‘..we must have the courage to escape the logic of fear and pursue a world without them.’ It was primarily due to US efforts that as many as 38 countries voted against the resolution and 16 abstained from voting. Most surprising among these are Australia which has voted against the resolution and Guyana, Kyrgyzstan, Mali, Nicaragua, Sudan, Uzbekistan and Vanuatu, which abstained. These are all countries which have earlier committed themselves to being part of nuclear weapons free zones.
Another surprise voter against the resolution is Germany which officially supports the idea of a nuclear weapons free world but of late its commitment seems to be wavering. In the past Germany, along with other North Atlantic Treaty Organisation members, has requested US to remove its nuclear weapons stationed in European NATO member states. In any case there is a societal consensus in Germany against nuclear weapons. Canada voted against the resolution but supports the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty which seeks a ban on bomb making material.
Another society which supports non-nuclearism is Japan because of the suffering it has been directly subjected to. Japan has adopted three non-nuclear principles of non-possession, non-production and non-introduction of nuclear weapons. Even then it voted against the resolution.
India took a vague position. India’s permanent representative to the Conference on Disarmament D.B. Venkatesh Varma said India has been constrained to abstain on the resolution and it is not convinced that the proposed conference in 2017 can address the longstanding expectation of the international community for a comprehensive instrument on nuclear disarmament. While India’s frustration with the big nuclear powers in blocking every attempt towards total disarmament can be understood, it should be on board any attempt in that direction. It is a saving grace that it did not vote against the resolution under US pressure. Varma stated that it has chosen to pursue the path of nuclear disarmament through negotiations in the Conference on Disarmament.
By Sandeep Pandey
Vice President, Socialist Party (India)
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